It now appears it's a question of when, not if, Carlos Beltrán will be voted into the Hall of Fame.
In fact, next year could be his time, with the ballot wide open.
Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner were elected in voting by the Baseball Writers' Association of America announced Tuesday night. Beltrán fell 19 votes short of the needed 75% for induction.
It was only Beltrán's third year on the ballot — the maximum is 10 — so the graceful outfielder is in good shape to make it eventually. And next year should work in his favor because there probably won’t be any first-ballot inductees. Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun are expected to headline the newcomers.
“He’s going to be the closest to the finish line, and there’s I don’t think anybody who’s going to threaten 75% coming onto the ballot," said Ryan Thibodaux, whose online ballot tracker provides a preview of the results in the weeks leading up to each year's announcement.
“So if the BBWAA wants to elect anyone, he’s probably the guy.”
Fellow center fielder Andruw Jones may have a shot next year after his approval rating jumped from 61.6% to 66.2% this time. The concern for Jones is he has only two years left.
“You'd maybe want to see a little bit more of a jump to be sure about him being able to close the gap," Thibodaux said. "Not in a bad position at 66%, but I don't think he's in ‘sure thing’ territory at this point.”
New 2026 arrivals
Hamels went 163-122 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 major league seasons and was the MVP of the 2008 World Series for the Philadelphia Phillies. Braun played all 14 of his seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers and won National League MVP honors in 2011, although he served a drug suspension that will presumably hurt his chances.
Also newly eligible next year are Matt Kemp, the runner-up to Braun for that MVP, as well as 2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello and longtime Kansas City Royals standout Alex Gordon.
Last chance
Manny Ramirez gets his 10th and final try next year. He received 34.3% of the vote this time, with his own drug-suspension history holding him back despite his 555 home runs.
Coattail effect?
Andy Pettitte's percentage more than doubled from 13.5% to 27.9%, perhaps a result of Sabathia's high support. The two had similar career win totals and ERAs.
Pettitte, however, has two problems: He admitted using performance-enhancing drugs, and he has only three more years on the ballot with a long way to go.
“He’s definitely got to make some serious headway quickly," Thibodaux said.
Long road ahead
Of the four first-time candidates this year, two of them — Suzuki and Sabathia — were voted into the Hall. Two others cleared the 5% threshold needed to stay on the ballot.
Dustin Pedroia debuted at 11.9%, and Félix Hernández drew 20.6% approval.
Hernández will be a candidate to watch going forward. His 3.42 career ERA was better than Sabathia's 3.74, but he lacked longevity. Still, he's in a position to improve and has plenty of time.
“He's starting out in a better spot than Mike Mussina did. Any number of other candidates (who got elected) started way lower than 20%," Thibodaux said. "It looks like one of those candidacies that'll probably be five, six, seven, 10 years, and we'll just have to see where it ends up.”
Down the road
It's not just next year that presents a big chance for holdover candidates to gain support. The 2027 newcomers are fairly pedestrian aside from Buster Posey.
After that, there could be multiple first-ballot inductees in 2028 (Albert Pujols and maybe Yadier Molina) and 2029 (Miguel Cabrera and perhaps Zack Greinke and Joey Votto).
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AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb
Noah Trister, The Associated Press
