Mario Canseco: Under Trump, the monarchy’s popularity has rebounded

For the past few years, the perceptions of Canadians on the monarchy have steadily tilted towards republicanism. This month, 31 per cent of Canadians (up eight points since March 2024) told Research Co. that they want the country to remain a monarchy, while 40 per cent (down six points) would prefer to have an elected head of state. Just under one in five Canadians (18 per cent, down three points) do not care either way and 11 per cent (up one point) are undecided.

Two demographics are clearly divided. Women are split on whether Canada should stay as it is (34 per cent) or have an elected head of state (35 per cent). Canadians aged 55 and over are also torn (36 per cent for a monarch and 37 per cent for a purported president).

The push for an elected head of state is stronger among men (45 per cent), Canadians aged 18 to 34 (41 per cent) and those aged 35 to 54 (43 per cent). Regionally, support for maintaining the status quo is highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (35 per cent), followed by Ontario (34 per cent), Atlantic Canada (also 34 per cent), B.C. (32 per cent), Alberta (31 per cent) and Quebec (24 per cent).

Canadians’ views on important Royal Family figures are not behind this eight-point rise in support for the monarchy. The favourability rating for King Charles III reached 40 per cent this month, while Queen Consort Camilla is at 30 per cent. Duchess Meghan has the same favourability as the reigning monarch (40 per cent), while the numbers remain higher for Prince Harry (47 per cent), Prince William (54 per cent) and Princess Catherine (58 per cent).

The King’s favourability rating is highest among British Columbians (46 per cent), Canadians aged 55 and over (50 per cent), Liberal Party voters in 2021 (also 50 per cent) and Canadians who want the monarchy to remain in place (62 per cent). While these numbers are significantly lower than what Queen Elizabeth II received in her reign’s final years, they do show some pockets of satisfaction with the current monarch.

Pressure on the King to partake in specific activities has subsided. Just over half of Canadians (51 per cent, down 17 points) want him to commit to reducing the carbon footprint of the Royal Family, and more than two in five (44 per cent, down 16 points) want the monarch to advance the cause of reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples. On this question, British Columbians are well above the national average (59 per cent).

Two other questions bring good tidings to the current monarch. More than two in five Canadians (44 per cent, down eight points) say they have no problem with King Charles III being featured on coins and bills that will be used in Canada, and 40 per cent (down 10 points) would have preferred to see Prince William become King.

Our collective perceptions on where we go from here have not changed. More than half of Canadians (53 per cent, up one point) expect Canada to still be a monarchy 20 years from now, while just under a third (32 per cent, down one point) think the country will have an elected head of state in the next two decades.

The last few weeks have seen Canadian politicians gaining popularity on account of their positioning during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Doug Ford won a new mandate in Ontario with an approval rating of 56 per cent, David Eby has seen his personal numbers rise in British Columbia to 55 per cent and Justin Trudeau was seen as a proper manager of the tariff dispute by 54 per cent of Canadians.

While some Canadians openly wondered if King Charles would scold Trump for his “51st state” overtures, the tradition of monarchs abstaining from politics has proven more powerful. Although not yet near the level of support for ultimately having an elected head of state, the popularity of the monarchy as the preferred form of government for Canada has rebounded. At a time of uncertainty and consistent verbal attacks by an American president who appears increasingly imprudent, the institution of the monarchy has become more appealing.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 10-12, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.