The first year of Elias Pettersson’s eight-year, $92.8 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks has not been going as planned.
The 26-year-old forward is on pace for just 17 goals and 53 points this season, which would easily be the worst of his career. His performance has frustrated not only fans but also management, as general manager Patrik Allvin has been clear about Pettersson not living up to the very high expectations created by his contract.
Perhaps all Pettersson needs a change of scenery. Fortunately, the Canucks don’t have to trade him for that to happen.
"I just want him to have fun"
Pettersson will spend the next two weeks on a completely different team, as he will be a key forward for Team Sweden in the 4 Nations Face-Off. It’s an opportunity for Pettersson to step away from the noise and pressure of a tumultuous season in Vancouver and just focus on the joy of playing hockey.
“I just want him to have fun,” said Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet on Saturday. “I know it’s a serious tournament — everybody wants to win, it’s serious. I want him to go represent his country and go have fun with his countrymen. Just have fun. Try stuff…Hopefully, in that tournament, hanging out with his buddies rejuvenates his whole demeanour.”
At Sweden’s practice on Monday, Pettersson was centring the second line flanked by Adrian Kempe and Filip Forsberg, both of whom have 40+ goal seasons under their belts. Those are two pretty fun linemates for a playmaker like Pettersson.
A month ago, Forsberg named Pettersson as the number one player he was hoping to play with at the tournament. He’s getting his wish.
“I feel like there's just an overload of talent, and we're very fortunate enough to have the players that we have,” said Forsberg to Sportsnet’s Randip Janda. “Up the middle, I think Elias Pettersson is somebody that has done so well in this league…That's somebody that I'm looking forward to playing with. I haven't played with him before, so that would be exciting.”
On top of a couple of goalscoring linemates, Pettersson will also be reuniting with his former Vaxjo head coach, Sam Hallam, with whom he won the SHL championship in 2018. Hallam, who is in his third year of coaching Sweden’s national team, seemed to have no issues finding ways for a 19-year-old Pettersson to produce in the SHL, as he set scoring records for an under-20 player in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Everything is in place for Pettersson to have a successful 4 Nations, though a lot depends on everything falling just right in such a short tournament.
Sweden will play three games in the round robin, facing Canada on Wednesday, February 12, Finland on Saturday, February 15, and the United States on Monday, February 17. If they finish in the top two after those three games, they’ll move on to the championship game on Thursday, February 20.
If all goes well, Pettersson will return to Vancouver feeling revitalized and will hopefully go on a scoring tear in the final stretch of the season.
Pettersson's scoring rate at 5-on-5 is way down
The truth is, something needs to change for Pettersson.
There are any number of reasons why Pettersson has struggled this year, whether they’re presented as excuses or not. Take your pick: the tendinitis that emerged last season hindered his offseason training; the J.T. Miller situation was a distraction for the entire team but particularly Pettersson; the only Canucks defenceman who could transition the puck up ice was Quinn Hughes; etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
At this point, two of the biggest apparent issues have been resolved and the list of excuses is growing shorter. Pettersson needs to produce.
If we look at Pettersson’s scoring rate from season to season, the issue becomes readily apparent.
At 5-on-5, Pettersson is scoring goals at a rate of 0.44 goals per 60 minutes. That’s about half the rate he scored at in his rookie season.
His primary assists at 5-on-5 are also way down at 0.71 per 60 minutes, which beats only his injury-shortened 2021-22 season when he was limited to 26 games.
On the power play, however, we see something interesting: Pettersson is actually scoring goals at a higher rate than the 2022-23 season where he had 103 points.
In fact, Pettersson’s primary points on the power play are about equivalent to most of the other seasons in his career. If you take away secondary assists (click on the label on the chart), you can see that this is actually the third best season of Pettersson’s career by primary points per 60 minutes on the power play.
So, Pettersson could also use a little more luck with secondary assists on the power play. If he was picking up secondary assists at the same rate as last season, he’d have five more power play assists and be leading Canucks forwards in scoring right now.
So, perhaps contrary to what might be expected, the power play isn’t necessarily the biggest issue for Pettersson, though there are still some concerns in that area when we look at Pettersson’s shot generation.
The big issue for Pettersson, then, is his 5-on-5 production. But the chart also shows one of the biggest reasons for optimism when it comes to Pettersson: he followed up his worst season of 5-on-5 production in 2021-22 with his best in 2022-23.
Pettersson needs to shoot the puck way more
When we look at Pettersson’s shot rate, it’s clear that he doesn’t have the shoot-first mentality that he once did.
At 5-on-5, Pettersson is attempting shots at his lowest rate in four years and getting shots on goal at the lowest rate of his career.
That reflects what fans are seeing on the ice, as Pettersson readily defers to his teammates rather than looking to create shots himself.
Pettersson’s low shots on goal aren’t a reflection of missing the net more, as his missed shots are in line with previous seasons, though it should be noted that he’s having his shots blocked at the highest rate of his career, if only by a small margin over last season.
Perhaps that’s a reflection of opposing teams doing a better job of scouting Pettersson and taking away his shooting lanes or of Pettersson needing to do a better job of moving his feet to create those shooting lanes. It’s hard to say exactly what the cause is.
On the power play, however, we see something interesting. Although Pettersson is attempting shots on the power play at the lowest rate since his rookie year, his rate of shots on goal is not as low as you might expect.
Pettersson is averaging 11.09 shots on goal per 60 minutes on the power play. Last season, he averaged 13.97 shots on goal per 60 minutes. That basically works out to one extra shot on goal for every ten two-minute power plays.
The big gap on the power play is in blocked shots. Opponents are blocking just 3.32 of Pettersson’s shots per 60 minutes on the power play, which is the lowest of his career by a massive margin.
What that suggests to me is that Pettersson is going out of his way to avoid getting his shots blocked on the power play. Fans see his reluctance to shoot on the power play; what he likely sees is a lack of a shooting lane.
That’s on Pettersson, of course. It’s partially his responsibility to create those shooting lanes by putting himself in better positions on the ice and moving his feet with and without the puck.
It could be surmised that Pettersson is in his own head about his shots being blocked and is too worried about waiting for the perfect opportunity to shoot instead of going on instinct and stepping into pucks even if an opposing penalty killer is in the lane.
There are some clear trends that need to be reversed. Pettersson needs to be more willing to shoot the puck and also do all of the things that lead to more opportunities to shoot the puck, which is a bit more complicated.
On the power play, at least, Pettersson needs to be more willing to fire away, even if it means a few more shots getting blocked.
The 5-on-5 scoring is, of course, the biggest issue.
Some Canucks fans seem to believe that Pettersson’s effort is the problem, that he’s coasting after cashing in with a big contract. But there’s one statistic that calls into question that theory: Pettersson is sixth among NHL forwards in blocked shots this season. In blocks per game, he’s fourth.
Players who are coasting and don’t actually care about winning don’t typically put their body on the line by throwing themselves in front of a lot of shots.
The effort is there but something else is missing. The Canucks have to hope that something else gets a reset during the two weeks of the 4 Nations Face-Off.
