Pius Suter is the Swiss army knife of the Vancouver Canucks: he can do it all.
On Monday night against the New Jersey Devils, Suter had to be the Canucks’ first-line centre with Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil on the shelf with injuries. Like Daniel Radcliffe in Swiss Army Man, Suter excelled in the unexpected role, scoring the opening goal and assisting on the last-minute tying goal while eating up over 23 minutes of ice time in all situations.
“For the couple of years I’ve been here, [Suter] has really played good hockey for me,” said head coach Rick Tocchet. “I’ve moved him up and down the lineup: the first line, second line, he’s been a fourth liner — he’s been everywhere. Obviously, his brain — he’s a smart guy. He’s a system guy. He’s like another assistant coach for us.”
There’s just one problem: he’s a pending unrestricted free agent.
Why the Canucks didn't move Suter at the trade deadline
Heading into the trade deadline, it looked like Suter was going to get moved to another team. He and the Canucks were far apart in contract talks and rumours linked Suter to the Dallas Stars. Instead, the deadline came and went with Suter remaining on the Canucks.
“The Canucks drew some interest on Suter, but not enough to convince the club to part ways with a player it regards highly, needs for the stretch run and believes it will have a good opportunity to retain before the market opens on July 1,” reported The Athletic’s Thomas Drance after the Canucks’ quiet deadline.
In other words, the Canucks think they can re-sign Suter before he goes to free agency.
It’s understandable that the Canucks would want to hang onto Suter. He’s been a vital component of the Canucks’ lineup. He’s currently third on the Canucks in goalscoring and first in 5-on-5 goals, while regularly playing tough minutes against the opponents’ top forward lines.
“Sutes is a really smart guy. I've given him some tough assignments this year,” said Tocchet. “Everybody says, ‘Well, his foot speed,' but he looks like he's fast out there to me, because he's got a good brain. He can score 20 goals, shut down the other team's best line — that's great for us.”
The trouble is that Suter might not be cheap.
“That’s a cha-ching goal”
Suter is currently in the final year of a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.6 million. Given everything he brings to the Canucks, that’s a steal of a deal.
Heck, even if all he brought was the 21 goals he’s scored this season, Suter would be a bargain. Apart from players on entry-level contracts, Suter is the cheapest 20-goal scorer in the NHL.
Those 20+ goals, however, are what might make him too expensive for the Canucks to keep, as Tocchet pointed out after he reached the milestone.
“He scored his 20th and I told him after the game, ‘Cha-ching!’” said Tocchet. “That’s a cha-ching goal.”
Based on past contracts for similar players, AFP Analytics predicts a four-year contract for Suter with a cap hit of around $3.93 million — and those projections came out before Suter reached 20 goals on the season. That cap his would be nearly two-and-a-half times higher than his current contract with the Canucks.
Even if Suter doesn’t quite fetch that price in free agency, he’s still due a significant raise. Suter has been fantastic for the Canucks at his current price point; can they afford to keep him as a utility player at twice the cost?
How much cap space will the Canucks have available?
With the salary cap going up significantly for next season, the Canucks will have cap space available. They won’t have as much as other teams, as the cap hit for Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s buyout will increase from $2,346,667 to $4,766,667, eating up $2.42 million of that extra cap space.
Here’s a roster of 21 players for next season to illustrate where the Canucks sit. This roster leaves the Canucks with around $15.3 million in cap space.
That sounds like a lot until you start looking at what the Canucks need to use that cap space for. They need at least one top-six winger and preferably two, because it’s still unknown just how much the Canucks will be able to rely on Nils Höglander and Jonathan Lekkerimäki to play top-six minutes next season.
How much money will that take? Consider that Brock Boeser is projected by AFP Analytics to sign for around $9 million per year.
Nikolaj Ehlers might be cheaper — he’s projected for a $7.5 million cap hit — but has never scored 30 goals in a season. Pursuing a bigger name in Mitch Marner could cost upwards of $12 million per year, especially with such a thin crop of top-tier wingers in free agency.
The Canucks will also need a middle-six centre — middle-six instead of third-line because Filip Chytil’s health could be a concern, so they need someone who can potentially fill in as a second-line centre.
That centre could be Suter but are the Canucks willing to spend $3.5 to $4 million on Suter to fill that role and leave less money to address their needs in the top-six? Or will they instead look to upgrade on Suter with a legitimate second-line centre and look for a cheaper winger?
So, should the Canucks re-sign Suter? It might depend on whether the Canucks plan to be in the market for a bigger name in free agency.
The risk of re-signing Suter
There’s an argument to be made that the Canucks should avoid spending on Suter and should instead endeavour to find the next Suter instead — a player that can provide similar value on a cheaper contract.
Because the big risk with Suter is overpaying for an outlier season.
Suter is scoring goals at a higher rate than he has in any other season. Some of that might be credited to usage, as he’s getting more offensive opportunities this season, particularly with injuries, but some of that is a result of percentages going his way.
If we look at Suter’s 2024-25 season compared to his career numbers before this season, a few things become clear.
Suter is scoring goals at a much higher rate at 5-on-5 than his career numbers while averaging fewer shots. That, of course, means his shooting percentage is significantly higher.
Suter is scoring on 18.6% of his shots at 5-on-5 and 18.4% overall, much higher than his career-high of 13.3%. That gives Suter a top-30 shooting percentage in the NHL this season.
Several times this season, Tocchet has credited Suter for the work he put in to improve his shot.
“[Suter] has worked on his shot, especially at the start of the year,” said Tocchet back in December. “I don’t know what line I had him on but I remember he came in and — he wasn’t complaining — he just said, ‘What can I do to get better?’ We talked about his practice, he was staying on and shooting a lot of pucks. I feel that’s really helped him because his shot has really improved from last year and he gets it off quicker.”
Suter working on his shot might help explain some of the improvement in his shooting percentage but the harsh truth is that most players who see that kind of improvement in their shooting percentage regress to their career average in the future.
The risk, then, is in paying money for a 20-goal scorer who then never scores 20 goals again.
Still, even if Suter goes back to being a 14-15 goal scorer, there’s an argument to be made that he would still be worth the money. There’s value in a versatile penalty-killing forward who seems to make every line he plays on better, whether that line is in the top-six or bottom-six.
There's value in going with a player the Canucks know and are comfortable with. They know Suter's strengths and weaknesses and what he can bring to any one of their lines. The question is how much money is that comfort worth?
