Canada’s largest stock index saw another day of triple-digit losses Monday, as U.S. markets also suffered a significant pullback against the backdrop of ongoing inflation fears.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 136.46 points at 19,974.92. Riskier sectors were hardest-hit, with the cannabis-heavy S&P/TSX capped health care index down 3.10 per cent on the day, and the consumer discretionary and tech sectors also down more than one-and-a-half per cent.
"There was really nowhere to hide today," said Allan Small, senior investment adviser at IA Private Wealth. "This was a broad-based decline."
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 643.13 points at 33,063.61. The S&P 500 index was down 90.49 points at 4,137.99, while the Nasdaq composite was down 323.65 points at 12,381.57.
Equities markets took a sharply negative turn late last week, snapping a solid five-week run of gains. North American investors had appeared this summer to be gaining confidence that the already announced interest rate hikes by central bankers would be enough to get inflation under control, and that more aggressive rate increases would not be necessary. That optimism, in turn, helped markets rally to regain much of the losses suffered during June’s bear market.
Last week, however, that sentiment appeared to flip. Markets are once again jittery about the prospect of more and higher interest rate increases and their potential impact on the economy, Small said.
“Overall, we’re back on Fed watch,” he said, adding all eyes will be on this Friday’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, Wyo. to see if Chair Jerome Powell makes any comments that might indicate what the central bank plans to do to tackle inflation that remains stubbornly high, well above its target.
"Many (investors) anticipate higher interest rates, and more rate increases to come, and I think that’s what’s really driving the doom and gloom today.”
With a lack of other information to go on, given the lack of major economic data releases expected this week, Wall Street pundits will likely "parse through every word" Powell says Friday in hopes of gleaning some insight into the mind of the Fed Chair ahead of the central bank's next scheduled interest rate announcement in September, Small said.
"And unfortunately, I don’t think that’s something investors can really prepare for or invest around, because we don’t know what he’s going to say," he added.
Traders worry aggressive steps to slow the economy might go too far and bring on a recession. The U.S. economy has already contracted through the first half of 2022, and there has been gloomy economic news out of China and the U.K. in recent days.
Fears about the overall health of the global economy, and the impact a prolonged recession could have on oil demand, drove crude prices down again Monday. The October crude contract was down eight cents at US$90.36 per barrel.
The energy supply crisis in Europe, and fears about natural gas supply on that continent heading into the fall and winter, continues to spur natural gas prices higher. The September natural gas contract on the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub was up 34 cents at an eye-watering US$9.68 per mmBTU.
While corporate earnings for the second quarter have so far been better-than-expected, Small said investors know that the full impact of inflation and recent interest rate hikes won't be seen until the next quarter. That too, is a source of apprehension.
Bond yields have also gained ground in recent days, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury now above three per cent and the yield on the three-year government of Canada benchmark bond also above three per cent.
While August and September tend to be weaker months for equities in general, Small said it's clear that investors right now are jittery about the prospect of future interest rate hikes, and whether continued aggressive moves by the U.S. Fed and the Bank of Canada could result in a prolonged recession.
"This whole prospect is just triggering havoc with the markets," he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 76.72 cents US compared with 76.98 cents US on Friday.
The December gold contract was down US$14.50 at US$1,748.40 an ounce and the September copper contract was down one cent at US$3.65 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 22, 2022.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD=X)
Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press
