Metro Vancouver’s transit system is on the precipice of some of the steepest service cuts in its history, leaving entire communities without bus service and stranding the most vulnerable passengers, unless the provincial and federal governments step up with additional funding, according to a new report to be released today.
The “Report on Potential Transit Impacts” will land with a thud on the desks of the Mayors’ Council on Regional Transportation this morning — as it will on the campaign trail in this fall’s provincial election, where the document seems intended to whip up a flurry of debate over transit funding.
“Due to the magnitude of the financial gap, transit reductions would be in the range of 45-50 per cent overall and include elimination of entire routes plus significant reductions in frequency and start/end times of service,” reads the report.
“This would include cancelling approximately 145 bus routes, significantly reducing SkyTrain, SeaBus and HandyDART service, and potentially eliminating the West Coast Express. Funding for walking, cycling, and roads programs would also be cut.”
TransLink says it is $600 million short in annual operating funding for 2026.
The current funding model is failing to keep up with inflationary pressures on the system, due to the fact fare increases are held artificially low to ensure affordability for passengers and fuel tax revenue is in decline as motorists switch to electric vehicles, reads the report.
The B.C. government had offered increased financial aid to TransLink in the past, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic, but that money is set to end in 2025.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new $3-billion transit fund earlier this month, but the funding is earmarked for building new lines and not funding operational costs of existing systems. Premier David Eby has complained Ottawa did not consult B.C. on its transit needs before creating the new program.
The report will likely spur significant debate during the upcoming provincial election campaign and influence how political parties structure their party platforms on transit funding.
The new TransLink report suggests cuts first be made in expansion and upgrade planning, customer outreach and municipal planning divisions, which would save $175 million annually. Add to that a $41-million cut to operations and maintenance payments to local governments for things like road safety and bike infrastructure, and the total funding gap shrinks to $365 million annually.
“There are no positive, easy or correct ways to cut $365M from transit operations,” read the report.
“At that scale, it is not possible to simply reduce costs by lowering frequency or span of service. We would need to eliminate entire routes, as well as reduce frequencies and span of service on all remaining routes.”
The report proposes two alternatives for cuts to the region’s 230 current transit routes.
Under the first, TransLink would cut 45 per cent of bus service, focusing on the least productive routes first and saving those that have the highest ridership in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and central Surrey.
“Much of the rest of the region would be left with little to no transit access – particularly in the Northeast, Langley, White Rock, South Delta, and much of the North Shore,” reads the report.
“Remaining routes would likely carry higher overall system ridership, given relatively higher service levels.”
In this scenario, 15 per cent of SeaBus service would be cut, ending service an hour earlier and reducing peak frequency on weekdays to 15 minutes. The Expo-Millennium SkyTrain line would see a 10-per-cent service cut, and the West Coast Express would drop from five to three round trips per day.
Under the second option, TransLink would cut bus service 50 per cent (in the process eliminating more than 65 per cent of its actual routes) with the aim to retain reduced service for as much of the region, geographically, as possible.
It would mean steeper cuts to SeaBus, at 30 per cent, bumping service to 30-minute windows outside of weekday peak time, a 30 per cent cut to Expo-Millennium SkyTrain service and the complete elimination of the West Coast Express train.
In both scenarios, HandyDART service for those with disabilities would be slashed 35 per cent and be limited to medical trips, cutting off most day programs, education trips and other service for those with mobility issues.
The report notes the bus service reductions hit lower-income people the hardest, as well as visible minorities, youth and seniors. The changes would mean as much as one-third of those residents no longer live within walking distance to transit, according to the report.
“On the transit routes that remain, overcrowding would significantly worsen,” read the report.
“Late-night shift workers and those using transit later in the evening or early morning would have very limited or no transit option as service would end as early as 8 p.m. on some routes.”
The Mayors’ Council has warned transit cuts would have a dramatic impact on the region, at a time of rapidly growing population, but are not avoidable without financial assistance from the provincial and federal governments.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 16 years covering B.C. politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on CBC Radio.
